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This book highlights the social, economic and environmental importance of the mutual relations between industries in the same and in different regions and nations, and demonstrates how to model these relations using regional, interregional and international input-output (IO) models. It enables readers familiar with standard matrix algebra to extend these basic IO models with endogenous household expenditures, to employ supply-use tables (SUTs) that explicitly distinguish the products used and sold by industry, and to use Social Accounting Matrices (SAMs) that detail the generation, redistribution and spending of income. In addition to the standard demand-driven IO quantity model and its accompanying cost-push IO price model, the book also discusses the economic assumptions and usefulness of the supply-driven IO quantity model and its accompanying revenue-pull IO price model. The final chapters highlight three main applications of the IO model: (1) economic impact analysis of negative supply shocks as caused by, for example, natural disasters, (2) linkages, key sector and cluster analysis, (3) structural decomposition analysis, especially of regional, interregional and international growth, and demonstrate the strengths and weaknesses of these IO applications. This book appeals to economists and planners as well as scholars of regional and spatial science.
Input-output analysis. --- Interindustry economics --- Economics, Mathematical --- National income --- Input-output tables --- Accounting --- Regional economics. --- Spatial economics. --- Environmental economics. --- Economic geography. --- Industrial organization. --- Regional/Spatial Science. --- Environmental Economics. --- Economic Geography. --- Industrial Organization. --- Industries --- Organization --- Industrial concentration --- Industrial management --- Industrial sociology --- Geography, Economic --- World economics --- Geography --- Commercial geography --- Economics --- Environmental quality --- Spatial economics --- Regional economics --- Regional planning --- Regionalism --- Space in economics --- Environmental aspects --- Economic aspects
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This paper studies the potential long-term effects of three illustrative scenarios using a multi-sector computable general equilibrium (CGE) trade model calibrated to 165 countries. The first scenario estimates effects from potential U.S. auto tariffs. The second analyzes a ‘transactional deal’ between the U.S. and China to close their bilateral deficit. The third, in the absence of such a deal, considers a potential escalation in bilateral tariffs between the two countries. Some common features emerge across all three scenarios: the overall effects on GDP tend to be relatively small albeit negative in most cases, including for the U.S. However, sectoral disruptions and positive and negative spillovers to highly exposed ‘by-stander’ economies can be large. There is also heterogeneity at the subnational level in the U.S. -- richer states tend to benefit from certain scenarios. We discuss how estimated impacts depend on the extent to which the U.S. is able to re-shore production in protected sectors. These results can usefully complement estimates obtained through macroeconomic models that are better suited to capture dynamic effects, such as those stemming from trade policy uncertainty. More generally, our results both underscore the value of adhering to the existing levels of liberalization, and highlight the risks associated with a fragmentation or even a complete breakdown of the trading system.
International trade --- Mathematical models. --- Exports and Imports --- Taxation --- General Equilibrium and Disequilibrium: Input-Output Tables and Analysis --- Computable and Other Applied General Equilibrium Models --- Trade: General --- Models of Trade with Imperfect Competition and Scale Economies --- Trade Policy --- International Trade Organizations --- Public finance & taxation --- International economics --- Tariffs --- Exports --- Imports --- Trade tensions --- Trade barriers --- Taxes --- Tariff --- Commercial policy --- United States
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This paper exploits information from two different datasets to provide a novel and multi-dimensional picture of the engagement of all sub-Saharan African countries in global value chains (GVCs). It documents in detail the nature of the underlying data and the way it is used to construct several indicators of GVC engagement. As a companion to the paper, the data files are made available to interested researchers. While it is impossible to summarize the broad range of experiences that we document, two patterns stand out. First, the level of GVC engagement of most countries in sub-Saharan Africa is rather low, especially for their manufacturing sectors. Second, while there is increased GVC engagement over time in some countries, this pattern is by no means universal. The average engagement for the region over the time period studied (1995-2018) is not even positive on average across countries for several indicators.
Export Competitiveness --- Food and Beverage Industry --- General Manufacturing --- Global Value Chain --- Global Value Chains and Business Clustering --- Industrial and Consumer Services and Products --- Industry --- Input-Output Tables --- International Economics and Trade --- International Trade and Trade Rules --- Investment Climate --- Private Sector Development --- Regional Integration --- Trade and Regional Integration --- Trade Facilitation --- Trade Policy
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Products must fulfill predetermined rules of origin to be exported under the preferential access granted by a free trade area member. In turn, rules of cumulation establish which countries' inputs qualify when computing the extent of origin of a product. Recent literature shows that restrictive rules of origin affect sourcing decision by reducing imports of intermediate goods from third countries relative to free trade area partners. This paper uses the introduction of the Pan-European Cumulation System in 1997 to explore the effects of rules of cumulation on trade in intermediate goods. The system provided the European Union Free Trade Area's peripheral partners ("spokes") the possibility of cumulating stages of production from more countries to qualify for preferential access to the European Union market. Therefore, the system might have altered the organization of production in European Union centric value chains. The paper estimates a triple difference-in-differences specification and exploits different control groups. The results show that the effects of rules of cumulation on trade in intermediates are larger, with the stricter rules of origin applied to the related final good. When switching from bilateral to diagonal cumulation, the analysis finds a reduction in spokes' imports of intermediates from the rest of the world relative to those from spoke, reinforcing value chain connections within the cumulation zone. The analysis also finds a reduction in spokes' imports from the European Union 15 relative to the rest of the world and the Spokes. The findings suggest that the Pan-European Cumulation System allowed a reassessment of sourcing decisions: thanks to the possibility to cumulate, peripheral countries re-organized global value chain links.
Common Property Resource Development --- Industrial and Consumer Services Products --- Industry --- Input-Output Tables --- Intermediate Trade --- International Economics and Trade --- International Trade and Trade Rules --- Legal Products --- Legal Reform --- Pan European System of Cumulation --- PECs --- Rules of Cumulation --- Rules of Origin --- Social Policy --- Transport --- Vocational and Technical Education
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